Concerns over the Mt. Gox Bitcoin sell-off are overblown: CoinShares analysis

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The asset management company CoinShares conducted a study recently, and found that the concept of the Mt. Gox Bitcoin (BTC) sell-off worried the cryptocurrency market more than any potential effects on BTC pricing. The worst-case scenario, which is extremely rare, is a 19% daily decline if all Bitcoin is sold at once.

At now, the trustee of Mt. Gox possesses 142,000 Bitcoin and an equivalent quantity of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), with corresponding values of $8.85 billion and $55.25 million. Creditors were given two options, according to Luke Nolan, Ethereum Research Associate at CoinShares: either wait for the legal case to conclude or receive 90% of their outstanding balance in kind this month.

Since early payback was chosen by an estimated 75% of debtors, the July dividend was reduced to roughly 95,000 BTC. Furthermore, Bitcoinica and MtGox Investment Funds (MGIF) have claims of 10,000 and 20,000 BTC, respectively, on the list of creditors for Mt. Gox.

As a result, only 65,000 Bitcoin will be given to private buyers. However, Nolan notes that since the Mt. Gox tragedy, investors’ holdings have increased by almost 13,600%, and selling all of their Bitcoin would result in a massive tax event.

Furthermore, there is less chance of big contemporaneous selling because the distributions will take place across multiple exchanges on various dates during the month. 

Over the previous year, the average daily inflow into the exchange has been 32,000 BTC. The highest amount, at the spot debut of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 11th, was 150,000 BTC.

Nolan believed that the market could handle these quantities with ease, given that it has already been put to the test by this year’s significant liquidations from the Grayscale ETF, should the approximately $3 billion in Bitcoin be sold in a single day. 

Hence, CoinShares analysts predict a 19% decline in a single day. They do not, however, think that this scenario is likely to occur.

Notably, the effect would be negligible if all of the Bitcoin owed to Mt. Gox creditors were to be sold during the ensuing thirty days. When combined with the possibility of interest rate reductions this year, it will probably be outweighed by these occurrences that support prices.

Due to its lesser liquidity and $8 billion market capitalization, Bitcoin Cash is more susceptible to selling pressure. The analysis found that creditors may sell up to 80% of distributed BCH, which could seriously destabilize the market.

Disclaimer : This article was created for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. An asset’s past performance does not predict its future returns. Before making an investment, please conduct your own research, as digital assets like cryptocurrencies are highly risky and volatile financial instruments.

Author: Puskar Pande

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