- With four months to go, there are already bets over $200 million on the outcome of the US presidential election.
In June, traders on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket increased their bets on the outcome of the US presidential election, with monthly trading volume reaching $100 million.
As of this writing, there are $203.3 million worth of bets in Presidential Election Winner 2024, spread among 17 prediction markets as individual Yes or No bets.
With 62% odds to win the US election, former president Donald Trump is currently the favorite, with $24.7 million in bets both for and against him.
Joe Biden, the president of the United States, is ranked second with $23.9 million in wagers on his ability to win another term. However, since his dismal performance in the June 28 Presidential Debate, those odds have dropped from 34% to 21%.
The chances for Democrats Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris increased in the meantime, as several pundits questioned if Biden ought to withdraw from the presidential contest.
Millions of bets have also been placed on other election-related betting exchanges.
Yes bets on Biden dropping out of the presidential campaign and Biden dropping out by July 4 markets have surged in response to Biden’s last debate performance; these bets are currently at 43% and 9%, respectively. Bets of more than $10 million have been made in certain markets.
Millions of dollars have also been wagered on American musician Kanye West and cryptocurrency skeptic Elizabeth Warren to win the presidency, but as of right now, those markets indicate a less than 1% possibility.
According to a Dune Analytics dashboard, Polymarket, which is based on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, experienced $109.9 million in trade volume in June, marking the first time it has crossed the $100 million threshold.
The range of trading volumes from January to May was $38.9 million to $63 million, indicating a 620% increase from the five months prior (August-December, 2023).
In June, there were 29,266 active traders on a monthly basis, an increase of 115%.
According to Token Terminal data, the total value locked in Polymarket is currently $40.2 million, an increase of roughly 69% over the previous 30 days.
The UEFA European Football Championship 2024 markets and cryptocurrency prices have both recorded significant trade volumes on Polymarket.
Launched in June 2020, Polymarket was led by venture capital firm Founders Fund and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, and it just raised $70 million.
Decentralized prediction markets, according to Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, are a means of slicing through false narratives and seeing the raw truth.
According to Cohler, prediction markets are technologies that uphold freedom and advance society (June 30, X).
Disclaimer : This article was created for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. An asset’s past performance does not predict its future returns. Before making an investment, please conduct your own research, as digital assets like cryptocurrencies are highly risky and volatile financial instruments.
